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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP