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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 3 – Baltimore Ravens 18

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model