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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 2

Baltimore Ravens 18 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP