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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 3 – Baltimore Ravens 9

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 20 for 7 yards (39-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP