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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 3 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 57 yards to BAL 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at TEN 17 for 70 yards (4-R.Stonehouse).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model