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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 19

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.46 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP