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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP