Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 18 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to TEN 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-K.Philips to TEN 31 for 11 yards (13-D.Duvernay, 53-D.Phillips). Penalty on TEN-14-C.Dowell, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model