BAL @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin

Sunday 2023-10-08 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

BAL

48.2%

PIT

51.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BAL offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
PIT offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
BAL defense: -0.117 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
QB edge to BAL: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.074 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.014 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 19

–

PIT 20

Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BAL

Odafe Oweh LB Out Ankle

Daryl Worley S Out Shoulder

Morgan Moses T Doubtful Shoulder

Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Knee

Justice Hill RB Questionable Foot

Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Foot

Keaton Mitchell RB Questionable Shoulder

Odell Beckham WR Questionable Ankle

PIT

James Daniels G Out Groin

Pat Freiermuth TE Out Hamstring

Pressley Harvin P Out right Hamstring

DeMarvin Leal DE Out Concussion

Dan Moore T Out Knee

Alex Highsmith LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 10

–

PIT 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:20 TD BAL (6:20) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 0
Q2 12:25 FG BAL (12:25) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – PIT 0
Q2 03:21 FG PIT (3:21) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing. BAL 10 – PIT 3
Q4 11:18 SAF PIT (11:18) 11-J.Stout punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-T.Ott, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. BAL 10 – PIT 5
Q4 07:13 FG PIT (7:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing. BAL 10 – PIT 8
Q4 01:23 TD PIT (1:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep right to 14-G.Pickens for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – PIT 14
Q4 00:52 FG PIT (:52) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing. BAL 10 – PIT 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 48%

(12:46) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to PIT 4, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-25-K.Seymour.
Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(9:23) 3-B.Wing punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 41 for 8 yards (28-M.Killebrew).
Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(4:54) 3-B.Wing punts 44 yards to BAL 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 5 yards (46-C.Kuntz; 42-J.Pierre).
Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

(12:25) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 47

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 32%

(8:17) 3-B.Wing punts 39 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

(3:21) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.
Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 23

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 87%

(:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers [55-C.Holcomb].
Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP

p(convert) 70%

(13:13) 3-B.Wing punts 43 yards to BAL 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 27%

(10:14) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to PIT 13, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(5:54) 3-B.Wing punts 42 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%

(3:21) 11-J.Stout punts 31 yards to PIT 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.
Q4 PIT 4th & 15 at the 42

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 45%

(13:44) 3-B.Wing punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.
Q4 BAL 4th & 16 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(11:18) 11-J.Stout punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-T.Ott, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

(7:13) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.
Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 61%

(5:48) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to PIT 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 25 for 8 yards (48-J.Moon). FUMBLES (48-J.Moon), touched at PIT 25, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at PIT 27. 25-K.Seymour to PIT 7 for 20 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at PIT 5. Penalty on PIT-93-M.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q4 PIT 4th & 16 at the 24 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%

(:52) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.
Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 72 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 22 for -6 yards (90-T.Watt). PENALTY on PIT-90-T.Watt, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.