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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to PIT 13, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.01 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model