Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(4:54) 3-B.Wing punts 44 yards to BAL 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 5 yards (46-C.Kuntz; 42-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model