Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(5:54) 3-B.Wing punts 42 yards to BAL 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.80 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model