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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 86

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 11-J.Stout punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-T.Ott, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model