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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 11-J.Stout punts 31 yards to PIT 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 89-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model