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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 4-Z.Flowers [55-C.Holcomb].

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.12 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.70 EP