Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 22 for -6 yards (90-T.Watt). PENALTY on PIT-90-T.Watt, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.27 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -0.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model