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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 8

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to PIT 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 89-G.Olszewski to PIT 25 for 8 yards (48-J.Moon). FUMBLES (48-J.Moon), touched at PIT 25, RECOVERED by BAL-25-K.Seymour at PIT 27. 25-K.Seymour to PIT 7 for 20 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at PIT 5. Penalty on PIT-93-M.Robinson, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP