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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 16 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:52) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +1.95 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model