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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 3-B.Wing punts 47 yards to BAL 33, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 41 for 8 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.18 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model