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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2023-09-10 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

JAX
65.0%
IND
35.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Anthony Richardson (IND) -0.108 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.115 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • JAX offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 25
–
IND 20
Projected margin: JAX by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

JAX

Antonio Johnson S Out Hamstring
Tyler Lacy DE Out Hip

IND

Zack Moss RB Questionable Forearm

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 31
–
IND 21

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:26 TD JAX (5:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 0-C.Ridley for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD IND (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – IND 6
  • Q2 05:02 TD JAX (5:02) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – IND 7
  • Q3 11:33 TD IND (11:33) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short left to 11-M.Pittman for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – IND 13
  • Q3 08:35 FG JAX (8:35) 10-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – IND 14
  • Q3 02:41 TD IND (2:41) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 28 for -8 yards (99-D.Buckner). FUMBLES (99-D.Buckner) [99-D.Buckner], recovered by JAX-4-T.Bigsby at JAX 35. 4-T.Bigsby to JAX 35 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), RECOVERED by IND-99-D.Buckner at JAX 26. 99-D.Buckner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 17 – IND 20
  • Q4 05:17 TD JAX (5:17) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 23 – IND 21
  • Q4 04:15 TD JAX (4:15) 1-T.Etienne left tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 30 – IND 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:41) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to IND 6, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to JAX 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 95%

    (11:58) (No Huddle) 5-A.Richardson up the middle to JAX 16 for no gain (95-R.Robertson-Harris).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to IND 36, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to JAX 48 for 16 yards (57-C.Johnson).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%

    (8:55) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman (96-A.Gotsis).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 53%

    (1:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to IND 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:11) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to IND 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to IND 37 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 85%

    (8:35) 10-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:37) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to JAX 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-41-G.Stuard.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 38%

    (4:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-E.Engram to IND 49 for no gain (45-E.Speed).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 56%

    (3:19) 35-D.Jackson right end to JAX 44 for -2 yards (32-Ty.Campbell). FUMBLES (32-Ty.Campbell), touched at JAX 44, RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 46.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to IND 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew pushed ob at JAX 43 for 10 yards (20-N.Cross).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 40%

    (13:01) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 48 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (11:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to JAX 6, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to IND 46 for 48 yards (20-N.Cross).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 95%

    (7:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to IND 11 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles right guard to JAX 3 for 5 yards (41-J.Allen; 23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman (23-F.Oluokun).