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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 15

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(7:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to IND 11 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model