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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 35-D.Jackson right end to JAX 44 for -2 yards (32-Ty.Campbell). FUMBLES (32-Ty.Campbell), touched at JAX 44, RECOVERED by JAX-33-D.Lloyd at JAX 46.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.99 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model