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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 85

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to JAX 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.94 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP