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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 42

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:55) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman (96-A.Gotsis).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.62 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model