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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson scrambles right guard to JAX 3 for 5 yards (41-J.Allen; 23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model