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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to IND 36, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 6-I.McKenzie to JAX 48 for 16 yards (57-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.13 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 37, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP