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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 10-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP