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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 43

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 35 yards to IND 8, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model