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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 48 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model