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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 1

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 31

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman (23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +4.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.75 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model