CAR @ TB — 4th & Data

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Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles

Sunday 2023-01-01 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

CAR

40.3%

59.7%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Sam Darnold (CAR): -0.196 EPA/dropback in prior starts
CAR offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
TB offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21

–

TB 23

Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CAR

Jaycee Horn CB Out Wrist

Andre Roberts WR Questionable Knee

Tommy Tremble TE Questionable Hip

Marquis Haynes DE Questionable Ankle

Cade Mays G Questionable Knee

TB

Carlton Davis CB Doubtful Shoulder

Carl Nassib LB Doubtful Pectoral

Jamel Dean CB Questionable Toe

Mike Edwards S Questionable Hamstring

Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee

Donovan Smith T Questionable Foot

Vita Vea DT Questionable Calf

Antoine Winfield S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 24

–

TB 30

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:44 TD CAR (11:44) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 82-T.Tremble for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – TB 0
Q2 07:57 TD CAR (7:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – TB 0
Q2 02:18 TD TB (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 14 – TB 6
Q2 01:13 FG TB (1:13) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. CAR 14 – TB 10
Q4 14:56 TD CAR (14:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 12-S.Smith for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 20 – TB 10
Q4 13:58 TD TB (13:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 21 – TB 16
Q4 06:53 TD TB (6:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 21 – TB 22
Q4 02:00 TD TB (2:00) 67-L.Goedeke reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 21 – TB 30
Q4 01:04 FG CAR (1:04) 4-E.Pineiro 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CAR 24 – TB 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP

p(convert) 71%

(7:13) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
Q1 TB 4th & 13 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(4:34) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to CAR 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-A.Roberts to CAR 24 for 6 yards (27-Z.McCollum).
Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(3:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 48

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 38%

(14:01) 12-T.Brady up the middle to CAR 47 for 1 yard (95-D.Brown; 53-B.Burns).
Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 35

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

(12:05) 3-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 36

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 68%

(9:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at TB 29 for 7 yards (31-A.Winfield).
Q2 TB 4th & 18 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(5:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to CAR 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-A.Roberts to CAR 33 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum).
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 58

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP

p(convert) 71%

(3:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.86 EP

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

(1:13) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Q2 CAR 4th & 18 at the 70

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.63 EP

p(convert) 27%

(:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right.
Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(13:01) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to CAR 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.
Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 15

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%

(4:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage to CAR 10 for 5 yards (98-M.Haynes). Penalty on CAR-25-X.Woods, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

(3:43) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-Y.Gross-Matos), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, RECOVERED by CAR-95-D.Brown at CAR 9.
Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(10:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.
Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(5:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to TB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
Q4 TB 4th & 15 at the 65 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(2:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts. PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 23.
Q4 TB 4th & 15 at the 49 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 35%

(:32) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to CAR 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.