Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

(4:34) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to CAR 18, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-A.Roberts to CAR 24 for 6 yards (27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model