Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

(13:01) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to CAR 16, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model