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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +4.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.86 EP