Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

(5:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to TB 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.45 EP
50% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model