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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP