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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(:32) 5-J.Camarda punts 41 yards to CAR 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +0.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP