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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 10-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model