Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 14

(5:46) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to CAR 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 18-A.Roberts to CAR 33 for no gain (27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model