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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 36

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:56) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore pushed ob at TB 29 for 7 yards (31-A.Winfield).

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model