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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model