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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
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CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CLE
26.3%
CIN
73.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.189 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.181 vs Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.198 EPA/dropback
  • CIN defense: +0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
CIN 28
Projected margin: CIN by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

CLE

Amari Cooper WR Questionable Not injury related - resting player

CIN

Hayden Hurst TE Out Calf

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
CIN 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:46 TD CIN (9:46) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 03:03 FG CLE (3:03) 3-C.York 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 3 – CIN 7
  • Q2 00:30 TD CIN (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CIN 13
  • Q3 07:33 TD CIN (7:33) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 16-T.Irwin for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CIN 19
  • Q3 02:25 TD CLE (2:25) (No Huddle) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – CIN 20
  • Q4 15:00 FG CIN (15:00) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman. CLE 10 – CIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:16) 4-D.Chrisman punts 51 yards to CLE 21, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 24 for 3 yards (23-D.Hill).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 85%

    (9:55) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:12) 4-D.Chrisman punts 44 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 19 for 8 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:54) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 40 for 20 yards (43-J.Johnson; 47-C.Hughlett). PENALTY on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (2:13) 4-D.Chrisman punts 42 yards to CLE 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:55) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 55 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor ran ob at CIN 27 for 9 yards (37-D.Bell). PENALTY on CIN-33-T.Flowers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 25.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (3:03) 3-C.York 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to CIN 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 15 for 7 yards (38-A.Green).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 13 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:12) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 17 for 4 yards (44-C.Johnston).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CIN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 71%

    (3:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CIN 27 for 6 yards (24-V.Bell).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-4-D.Chrisman.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right tackle to CLE 41 for 3 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%

    (6:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CIN 10 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates; 29-C.Taylor-Britt).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (5:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:26) 4-D.Chrisman punts 25 yards to CIN 48, Center-48-C.Adomitis, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 48%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 2-A.Cooper.