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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:13) 4-D.Chrisman punts 42 yards to CLE 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP