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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(8:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right tackle to CLE 41 for 3 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model