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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(5:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones (29-C.Taylor-Britt).

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model