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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 14

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end ran ob at CIN 10 for 4 yards (30-J.Bates; 29-C.Taylor-Britt).

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.04 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model