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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to CLE 13, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 17 for 4 yards (44-C.Johnston).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model