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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to CIN 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 15 for 7 yards (38-A.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.30 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP