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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 55

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 4-D.Chrisman punts 44 yards to CLE 11, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 19 for 8 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.82 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP