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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 85-D.Njoku to CIN 27 for 6 yards (24-V.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.10 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model